All That Glitters Is Not Gold
The latest retail sales figures rose 0.4%, month over month, creating somewhat of a blowout report. Read More
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It’s been a fun year for stock market investors. The S&P 500 has rallied over 22% this year, setting nearly 50 record highs as the current bull market recently celebrated its second birthday. Throughout the record-setting rally this year, even as corporate profits broadly backed lofty valuations, market watchers from Wall Street to Main Street have cited stretched valuations.
The Fed delivered a 50 basis-point cut in rates with a clear message they are committed to full employment. The decision to cut rates was not unanimous, but Chairman Jerome Powell mustered some consensus among the hawks and doves on the Committee. Still, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman dissented, the first time a governor has dissented since 2005. Read More
Additional content provided by Brian Booe, Analyst, Research. As the morning breeze grows slightly cooler, pumpkin spice-flavored coffees return to menu boards, and the college football rankings begin to heat up, it is clear fall has arrived. Read More
Additional content provided by Colby Hesson, Analyst, Research. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell headlined last week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, titled “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy." In his speech, he could not have been more clear: “The time has come for policy to adjust." The fed funds futures market expects a rate drop next month. Implied probabilities for a 0.25% reduction in the target rate remain at 100%, while the odds...
Leaves beginning to drop in the yard, back-to-school commercials, cooler nights, and for those working in capital markets, the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are all emblematic reminders summer is about to end. For many of us, especially with kids, the transition to fall brings a lot of change beyond just the turning of the leaves. Read More
Ever since the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on July 11, the most hawkish investor has had to concede that inflation rates were decelerating enough for the Fed to start cutting rates this year. After several disappointing reports earlier this year, more recent inflation reports were more encouraging to investors and setting things up for a small cap recovery. Read More
For many, investing in the infrastructure sector evokes thoughts of rather vanillainvestments in toll roads, airports, and tunnels. While those investments remainattractive within the transportation sector, as an asset class, infrastructure hascontinuously adapted and today includes a growing opportunity set for investors.Infrastructure as an asset class has existed since the industrial revolution; it gainedsteam during the early 1990s as fi rst Australia, followed by the United Kingdom, andCanada, began to privatize state-owned telecommunications, utilities, andtransportation companies.
With additional contributions by Kent Cullinane, Analyst, Research. With June, the second quarter (Q2), and the fi rst half of the year behind us, weconducted a deeper dive into fund fl ows over these periods. Flows measure the netmovement of cash into and out of investment vehicles, such as mutual funds andexchange-traded funds (ETF). We analyzed fl ows to gain insight on investor demandand sentiment surrounding asset classes, sectors, and other classifi cations of markets...
During the years immediately following the depths of the pandemic, when mortgage rates were unnaturally low, millions of households were moving out of high cost of living areas and relocating to lower cost of living areas. We call that the “Great Reshuffle.” The U.S. Postal Service processed roughly 36 million address changes in 2021, according to their website . But in 2023, the postal service processed only about 28 million. Read More
As we reach the halfway point of 2024, a sense of persistence defines the economic and market landscape. Trends from late 2023 have continued, with surprisingly resilient economic growth mixed with stubborn but decelerating inflation. Equity markets have thrived and regained all the lost ground from 2022. Read More
Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation's businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around. Read More
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is saddling up as a new electronic stock exchange tobe located in Dallas. Underpinned by a signifi cant investment of $120 million fromindustry heavyweights like BlackRock and Citadel Securities, the TXSE aims to shakeup the status quo and provide another competitive alternative to the globallyrecognized New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ. Read More
Another day and another record high for the broader market. Decelerating consumerinfl ation and limited surprises from the Federal Reserve (Fed) drove the S&P 500 up0.9% yesterday, marking its 28th record high of the year. Buying pressure wasrelatively widespread and powered by above-average volume, somewhat of ananomaly amid the recent rally above the March highs. Read More
With the S&P 500 generating six record highs over the last seven trading sessions — bringing the index’s record-high tally for the year to 31 — it shouldn’t come as a surprise that implied volatility is historically low. Receding expectations for market volatility have primarily been supported by easing inflation pressure, relatively less ambiguous monetary policy, impressive earnings, and a resilient U.S. economy. Read More
Gold has captured most of the spotlight in the metals complex this year after breaking out to record highs in March. However, copper may be an even more interesting story as the industrial metal has climbed steadily higher in the shadows of the yellow metal, amassing a 19% year-to-date return and topping gold’s gain of around 15% (as of June 5). READ MORE
After a solid 2023 in which the Bloomberg Municipal Index was up over 6% (including a positive 8% in November and December), it’s been a slow start to the year in 2024. Changing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations and already rich relative value ratios (versus Treasury yields) have, so far, offset still high tax-equivalent yields and solid fundamentals for the asset class. But with the unofficial kick-off to summer behind us, the muni market...
The technology sector was all the rage last week thanks to strong results from artificial intelligence (AI) darling NVIDIA (NDVA). Generally, a top-performing sector over the past decade, it’s hard to overstate technology’s importance to the market. While the official S&P classification results in a roughly 30% weight for the technology sector in the S&P 500 Index, adding tech-focused powerhouses such as Alphabet (GOOG/L), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), and others, pushes...
The post-pandemic economy is treating people very differently, creating a headache for central bankers. The extreme differences can often get traced back to living situations, as renters have a very different experience than homeowners. Since millions of homeowners refinanced mortgages to extremely low rates a few years ago, the economy is less sensitive to interest rate policy. In fact, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium sponsored by the Kansas City Federal Reserve in August will...
When I read the weekend press, I pay attention to several things. Is there turmoil to talk about? Are there earnings to talk about? Are there conflicting economic reports coming out that require us to be prepared for different possible outcomes? This weekend the press was about retirement. What does it mean to you? Should you work longer? Did your spouse pass? Basically, there was so little to discuss that there was the need to...
LPL Research examines the implications of depleted excess savings on consumer spending and the broader economy.
Since the days just preceding Tax-Day, April 15 th, the US equity market has been on a tear upward that started back in October. The US Treasury bond markets seem to have been the reason for this. After the Fed raised interest rates seven times back-to-back, to stave off inflation, the interest rates rolled over. But since the beginning of the year, the bond market has not been having such a good time of it...
With Q1 2024 behind us, we explore top contributors and detractors to performance across various asset classes and sectors. We also compare Q1 performance with our current Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) positioning.
10 Things You Should Know About Politics and Investing
Bullion broke new ground last week after rallying to a record high. Growing investor confidence for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut by this summer dragged down yields and the dollar, creating a tailwind for gold. The breakout above key resistance at $2,075 was also a major technical development, confirmed by bullish momentum that suggests the rally could continue. Global central bank demand has been another key catalyst and has shown no sign of slowing down, while a rebound in demand from gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could provide additional support for the yellow metal.
Key Takeaways Energy is struggling to keep up with the broader market this year. However, an improving technical setup for energy stocks points to a potential rebound for the sector. Seasonal tailwinds suggest this inflection point could be near. Crude oil is also making technical progress, and the futures curve is indicating the supply and demand backdrop is improving. Fundamentals remain bullish for the sector. Energy stocks are trading cheap relative to the S&P 500...
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment.
How to age-proof your most valuable asset
For the last number of weeks, I have been talking about how it could be expected that the markets are prepared for a digestion or a minor correction.
Despite a heavy lobbying effort to cajole OPEC+ members to agree to a unified cut in oil production, Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the energy cartel, was unable to orchestrate anything more than pledges on a “voluntary” basis.
Following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 2022 and 2023, stocks are entering a phase in which the market narrative is focused on interest-rate stability — as inflation, we believe, comes down further.
Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could temporarily impact goods prices but not at the same magnitude as during the pandemic.
